Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2023-24 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 1.01 Chicago Machine 100.00%,   Omen 0.60%,  
2 Mid-Atlantic 1.92 Truck Stop 100.00%,   Vault 91.60%,  
1 North Central 1.11 General Strike 49.60%,   STL Lounar 32.00%,   Sub Zero 21.20%,   Mad Men 7.70%,   Mallard 0.30%,  
3 Northeast 2.74 DiG 100.00%,   PoNY 100.00%,   GOAT 73.20%,   Blueprint 0.30%,   Sprout 0.20%,  
3 Northwest 3.06 Rhino Slam! 100.00%,   Furious George 97.90%,   Sockeye 91.60%,   Dark Star-D 16.90%,  
2 South Central 1.98 Johnny Bravo 99.30%,   Doublewide 99.00%,  
3 Southeast 2.91 Ring of Fire 100.00%,   Chain Lightning 100.00%,   Raleigh-Durham United 90.80%,  
1 Southwest 1.28 Revolver 100.00%,   Zyzzyva 16.30%,   SoCal Condors 11.50%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 1.006 1.916 1.108 2.737 3.064 1.983 2.908 1.278
Autos (all @ 1) 0.006 0.916 0.108 1.737 2.064 0.983 1.908 0.278
Northwest (@ 2) 0.006 0.916 0.108 1.737 1.064 0.983 1.908 0.278
Southeast (@ 2) 0.006 0.916 0.108 1.737 1.064 0.983 0.908 0.278
Northeast (@ 2) 0.006 0.916 0.108 0.737 1.064 0.983 0.908 0.278
Northwest (@ 3) 0.006 0.916 0.108 0.737 0.064 0.983 0.908 0.278
South Central (@ 2) 0.006 0.916 0.108 0.737 0.064 -0.017 0.908 0.278
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) 0.006 -0.084 0.108 0.737 0.064 -0.017 0.908 0.278
Southeast (@ 3) 0.006 -0.084 0.108 0.737 0.064 -0.017 -0.092 0.278
Northeast (@ 3) 0.006 -0.084 0.108 -0.263 0.064 -0.017 -0.092 0.278
Total 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 1

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Truck Stop 1 2499.23 59.78 1/3 11-1
2 PoNY 1 2333.94 58.4 1/6 22-3
3 Revolver 1 2245.3 56.02 2/10 18-5
4 Chain Lightning 1 2211.89 48.22 1/11 18-7
5 Chicago Machine 1 2189.71 50.11 2/11 16-7
6 Ring of Fire 1 2180.66 66.97 2/16 14-5
7 DiG 1 2167.51 42.2 2/13 23-6
8 Rhino Slam! 1 2085.8 40.18 4/16 20-10
9 Johnny Bravo 0.993 2112.77 63.19 2/18 11-7
10 Doublewide 0.99 2106.81 84.16 2/19 15-6
11 Furious George 0.979 2057.44 61.49 3/19 20-2
12 Vault 0.916 2004.36 47.88 5/21 9-8
13 Sockeye 0.916 1999.88 47.57 7/22 19-12
14 Raleigh-Durham United 0.908 2006.62 54.79 5/21 22-7
15 GOAT 0.732 1972.27 67.49 5/24 12-7
16 General Strike 0.496 1936.6 119.31 2/47 10-0
17 STL Lounar 0.32 1909.35 61.44 8/30 18-0
18 Sub Zero 0.212 1865.58 91.16 7/45 15-6
19 Dark Star-D 0.169 1883.29 46.24 11/26 17-7
20 Zyzzyva 0.163 1860.21 70.78 10/33 14-7
21 SoCal Condors 0.115 1852.4 64.35 9/34 9-8
22 Mad Men 0.077 1757.27 121.49 7/82 6-7
23 Omen 0.006 1739.79 67.53 15/47 13-10
24 Blueprint 0.003 1764.52 53.64 16/40 28-8
25 Mallard 0.003 1728.26 64.18 15/49 15-9
26 Sprout 0.002 1745.77 73.65 16/49 15-11
27 Tanasi 0 1732.45 52.41 18/42 13-10
28 Delirium 0 1678.68 50.7 20/48 19-10
29 Garden State Ultimate 0 1676.12 65.31 18/55 12-9
30 Scoop 0 1675.57 37.85 21/46 18-5
31 Blackfish 0 1666.59 57.97 20/50 5-2
32 Trident I 0 1661.81 69.44 17/57 13-8
33 baNC 0 1644.34 54.42 21/56 23-8
34 Kansas City Smokestack 0 1641.9 55.59 19/57 17-7
35 Alliance 0 1627.37 35.1 23/49 28-5
36 Phantom 0 1624.98 59.14 18/55 11-11
37 Pittsburgh Temper 0 1624.71 66.29 21/60 6-10
38 Cash Crop 2 0 1620.37 44 24/58 19-7
39 UpRoar 0 1605.32 66.3 22/68 19-5
40 Red Circus 0 1585.84 67.73 20/68 7-6
41 DeMo 0 1563.65 60.71 26/68 18-10
42 Beacon 0 1563.24 63.34 25/69 20-11
43 Alamode 0 1556.94 40.22 28/61 21-10
44 Shrimp 0 1555.23 54.31 26/69 13-8
45 H.I.P 0 1553.51 65.38 25/81 20-11
46 TireBizFriz 0 1552.5 75.59 22/76 11-13
47 Oakgrove Boys 0 1527.68 45.74 32/70 17-2
48 ISO Atmo 0 1519.35 47.19 32/67 23-7
49 Colonels 0 1503.69 70.52 21/81 18-6
50 Little Red Wagon 0 1497.91 43.54 31/69 23-11
51 Fungi 0 1492.54 46.8 34/74 20-15
52 Skipjack 0 1490.71 52.27 30/76 13-11
53 Switchback 0 1475.77 47.21 36/77 14-15
54 Lost Boys 0 1465.93 48.39 39/78 16-14
55 Shade 0 1449.64 57.58 33/81 17-13
56 I-69 0 1449.32 54.08 33/77 25-8
57 Hooch 0 1448.57 44.99 35/77 16-9
58 Sawtooth 0 1443.15 43.61 39/78 10-13
59 OC Crows 0 1436.89 75.04 30/89 12-10
60 Brawl 0 1418.55 59.36 37/86 19-11
61 Clutch 0 1410.39 75.27 30/90 20-9
62 OAT 0 1399.46 38.34 46/82 19-10
63 Big Wrench 0 1395.01 49.96 40/85 13-13
64 Colt 0 1389.28 58.75 41/93 15-8
65 Knights of Ni 0 1385.85 48.84 46/87 17-6
66 Hazard 0 1383.45 63.09 44/89 11-12
67 Flying Dutchmen 0 1377.54 51.5 44/88 20-14
68 Haymaker 0 1377.16 56.97 40/89 13-12
69 BARNSTORM 0 1374.75 58.03 42/88 22-7
70 Drought 0 1374.11 54.17 44/91 15-14
71 Red Tide 0 1371.93 76.36 36/92 12-11
72 Lantern 0 1349.71 46.44 48/87 10-18
73 Red Wolves 0 1347.98 46.98 51/90 11-12
74 Pittsburgh Stealers 0 1327.67 66.37 46/99 14-5
75 Space Cowboys 0 1312.3 49.46 50/91 14-17
76 Ghost Train 0 1309.41 58.28 48/96 14-11
77 Black Lung 0 1302.74 55.83 51/98 20-13
78 Second Nature 0 1299.6 54.09 55/98 20-13
79 HouSE 0 1296.54 54.82 52/96 10-9
80 Helots 0 1294.88 60.01 53/98 14-11
81 Charleston Heat Stroke 0 1291.36 33.14 62/91 17-10
82 Magma Bears 0 1291.23 69.15 51/102 13-12
83 Texas Duffy 0 1282.15 47.52 60/96 21-9
84 Riverside 0 1278.58 46.82 59/96 21-9
85 SOUF 0 1255.01 59.56 52/104 10-15
86 Triumph 0 1212.73 48.05 66/111 9-13
87 Harvey Cats 0 1207.19 47.25 68/104 16-13
88 Scythe 0 1203.08 49.23 71/106 12-8
89 Dreadnought 0 1187.83 66.07 62/112 15-10
90 MKE 0 1182.41 63.68 66/117 12-7
91 Ascension 0 1168.78 49.99 69/115 12-10
92 CITYWIDE Special 0 1167.75 50.46 75/112 4-14
93 Bloom 0 1149.31 45.38 78/109 14-12
94 Bomb Squad 0 1144.34 57.26 74/117 16-6
95 Atlanta Arson 0 1143.89 55.96 78/117 16-12
96 Chimney 0 1119.57 48.64 75/119 20-19
97 Raptor 0 1111.59 52.37 78/120 17-11
98 Tennessee Folklore 0 1100.59 55.86 81/122 6-10
99 El Niño 0 1091.7 50 83/120 10-9
100 John Doe 0 1089.35 56.11 80/129 12-8
101 Lil Heroes 0 1088.43 60.61 78/125 14-14
102 Battleship 0 1060.92 55.61 86/123 9-11
103 Cowtown Cannons 0 1056.61 54.16 85/126 14-16
104 Nomads 0 1051.02 64.13 83/134 15-12
105 PowderHogs 0 1048.49 74.68 80/141 5-11
106 Foxtrot 0 1042.89 52.05 89/127 11-16
107 Diesel 0 1040.66 52.99 86/127 17-15
108 NOx 0 1038.61 54.3 82/125 15-12
109 BAG 0 1034.3 81.68 80/137 8-9
110 Dyno 0 1026.16 54.92 88/134 8-17
111 Trident II 0 1023.67 52.76 89/131 18-16
112 Queen City Kings 0 995.15 47.95 92/137 8-26
113 Hazard 0 974.12 73.48 87/142 9-8
114 Make it Rain 0 971.54 71.25 89/139 5-13
115 STL Moonar 0 966.77 75.57 88/142 9-12
116 Music City Mafia 0 965.1 61.24 94/139 9-14
117 Green River Swordfish 0 964.26 66.57 91/142 9-12
118 DINGWOP 0 940.12 82.04 86/144 14-12
119 Minnesota Superior A 0 929.49 129.51 68/155 5-6
120 Rawhide 0 927.02 50.25 103/144 12-14
121 Nashville Mudcats 0 926.2 53.48 100/142 7-19
122 Sprawl 0 898.87 50.96 102/142 11-19
123 Odyssey 0 894.28 67.27 102/147 13-21
124 NOMAD 0 889.95 54.28 103/144 13-11
125 Winc City Fog of War 0 889 54.21 103/145 13-11
126 Alibi 0 887.94 59.16 103/146 17-23
127 Choice City Hops 0 884.65 46.25 109/142 11-16
128 MOB Ultimate 0 864.78 59.43 102/147 9-15
129 Crossfire 0 859.38 41.59 112/143 9-13
130 Firefly TX 0 858.17 55.28 104/147 10-16
131 Enigma 0 839.67 55.21 102/147 9-17
132 San Antonio Warhawks 0 831.23 43.45 113/147 9-16
133 Sonoran Dog 0 828.2 49.9 111/150 7-19
134 Memphis Pharaohs 0 825.27 62.75 108/151 8-13
135 Crypt 0 824.16 80.64 97/153 9-9
136 Battery 0 817.3 55.64 115/148 6-11
137 JAWN 0 812.44 59.01 113/151 6-10
138 Timber 0 810.55 77.6 110/153 9-11
139 SUPA FC 0 789.39 60.87 117/151 9-15
140 Anchor 0 785.91 77.25 110/155 2-14
141 Town Hall Stars 0 754.3 61.29 115/153 4-14
142 Dirty Laundry 0 748.17 61.13 119/154 14-16
143 DCVIII 0 735.58 55.72 117/153 7-13
144 Minnesota Superior B 0 728.26 71.82 118/155 5-8
145 Texas United 0 697.04 72.33 123/156 1-6
146 Capitol City Chaos 0 696.2 56.85 129/157 1-19
147 Rochester Open Club 0 682.18 81.62 114/158 15-9
148 Spring Break '93 0 660.13 85.72 122/160 12-12
149 Shrimp Discs 0 652.03 65.59 123/159 5-13
150 Loaded Panda 0 642.29 68.46 128/158 5-15
151 Villains 0 599.94 56.24 137/158 1-6
152 Long Island Riff Raff 0 589.54 46.23 141/158 9-16
153 Stag 0 558.46 65.21 143/159 4-14
154 Supercell 0 532.83 93.22 127/161 3-14
155 THE BODY 0 531.59 64.95 141/161 2-20
156 Forge 0 488.24 63.84 146/161 4-15
157 Buffalo Frostbite 0 486.54 70.7 144/161 9-22
158 Mischief 0 466.63 67.28 146/161 5-18
159 Adelphos 0 374.59 87.4 147/162 2-9
160 Mohawk Valley Wild 0 327.36 98.86 150/162 3-13
161 Milwaukee Revival 0 200.48 225.8 128/163 0-5
162 Deepfake 0 49.62 94.47 160/163 0-17
163 Scoop 0 48.49 97.68 159/163 0-21

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)