Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2023-24 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 0.93 Nemesis 93.10%,  
2 Mid-Atlantic 2.42 Scandal 100.00%,   Parcha 97.90%,   Grit 41.00%,   Flight 2.80%,  
1 North Central 0 Pop 0.30%,  
4 Northeast 4.05 Brute Squad 100.00%,   6ixers 100.00%,   BENT 100.00%,   Iris 69.10%,   Starling Ultimate 35.50%,   Siege 0.60%,  
3 Northwest 3 Traffic 100.00%,   Seattle Riot 100.00%,   Schwa 100.00%,  
1 South Central 1.01 Molly Brown 100.00%,   Vengeance 1.10%,  
1 Southeast 1.42 Phoenix 100.00%,   Ozone 42.30%,  
3 Southwest 3.16 Flipside 100.00%,   Fury 100.00%,   Nightlock 96.40%,   LOL 12.00%,   Wildfire 7.90%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 0.931 2.417 0.003 4.052 3.000 1.011 1.423 3.163
Autos (all @ 1) -0.069 1.417 -0.997 3.052 2.000 0.011 0.423 2.163
Northeast (@ 2) -0.069 1.417 -0.997 2.052 2.000 0.011 0.423 2.163
Southwest (@ 2) -0.069 1.417 -0.997 2.052 2.000 0.011 0.423 1.163
Northeast (@ 3) -0.069 1.417 -0.997 1.052 2.000 0.011 0.423 1.163
Northwest (@ 2) -0.069 1.417 -0.997 1.052 1.000 0.011 0.423 1.163
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) -0.069 0.417 -0.997 1.052 1.000 0.011 0.423 1.163
Southwest (@ 3) -0.069 0.417 -0.997 1.052 1.000 0.011 0.423 0.163
Northeast (@ 4) -0.069 0.417 -0.997 0.052 1.000 0.011 0.423 0.163
Northwest (@ 3) -0.069 0.417 -0.997 0.052 0.000 0.011 0.423 0.163
Total 1 2 1 4 3 1 1 3

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Scandal 1 2606.7 71.91 1/4 17-2
2 Phoenix 1 2479.74 162.23 1/11 18-1
3 Fury 1 2454.65 107.33 1/8 18-6
4 Molly Brown 1 2334.03 104.22 1/11 20-4
5 Brute Squad 1 2302.83 112.6 1/11 13-6
6 Flipside 1 2267.63 137.33 1/13 11-6
7 BENT 1 2131.43 105.57 3/13 19-5
8 6ixers 1 2105.93 88.57 3/16 12-8
9 Schwa 1 2101.71 81.1 4/14 25-6
10 Traffic 1 2101.06 79.23 3/13 16-8
11 Seattle Riot 1 1984.62 57.67 6/14 13-10
12 Parcha 0.979 1825.67 55.35 10/18 8-10
13 Nightlock 0.964 1831.52 69.62 9/21 12-13
14 Nemesis 0.931 1931.46 155.98 3/24 12-4
15 Iris 0.691 1747.14 82.23 11/24 12-7
16 Ozone 0.423 1686.4 72.31 12/25 16-5
17 Grit 0.41 1690.14 59.61 12/24 5-11
18 Starling Ultimate 0.355 1674.5 88.75 12/27 18-5
19 LOL 0.12 1559.51 133.39 12/36 18-3
20 Wildfire 0.079 1560.61 106.49 12/30 20-3
21 Flight 0.028 1539.4 85.11 14/30 7-6
22 Vengeance 0.011 1433.95 112.81 14/34 15-6
23 Siege 0.006 1541.48 68.95 15/29 14-9
24 Pop 0.003 1402.13 96.59 15/34 10-6
25 Colorado Small Batch 0 1459.47 63.26 17/31 12-10
26 Underground 0 1425.92 57.62 19/31 18-12
27 Tabby Rosa 0 1384.24 77.69 18/32 10-7
28 Rival 0 1366.44 113.28 17/37 16-7
29 Crush City 0 1313.39 60.95 20/34 22-5
30 Indy Rogue 0 1186.34 74.7 24/40 24-9
31 Huntsville Laika 0 1172.59 61.36 27/40 14-5
32 Agency 0 1149.08 100.22 23/50 13-5
33 FAB 0 1119.26 62.26 28/47 18-16
34 Brooklyn Book Club 0 1083.2 60.31 28/44 17-13
35 Hayride 0 1077.74 56.42 30/44 14-8
36 Heist 0 1041.1 77.75 28/51 18-4
37 Wave 0 1037.44 72.56 29/50 16-4
38 Juice Box 0 988.44 55.09 31/49 13-7
39 Rampage 0 973.75 69.61 30/53 12-9
40 San Antonio Problems 0 959.3 71.96 31/52 13-10
41 Vice 0 948.25 66.55 32/53 11-9
42 Venus 0 946.23 179.98 20/69 6-3
43 Trainwreck 0 934.06 58.41 30/52 11-8
44 Drift 0 914.94 42.35 35/52 10-13
45 Seven Devils 0 907.19 58.3 35/56 8-12
46 Void Cat Rewind 0 893.58 68.29 33/57 14-13
47 Stellar 0 876.94 58.43 35/55 13-15
48 Shiver 0 870.65 61.53 35/57 11-15
49 Salty 0 838.69 102.67 31/61 4-5
50 Fiasco 0 789.62 86.93 37/61 7-12
51 Virginia Rebellion 0 735.23 52.97 44/60 7-7
52 Wicked 0 722.92 56.42 42/62 12-11
53 Steel 0 713.62 101.89 36/69 3-4
54 Dish 0 702.78 48.19 45/61 15-11
55 Pine Baroness 0 696.66 77.67 40/64 7-11
56 TWISTED 0 689.75 66.27 44/64 10-13
57 Banshee 0 625.96 54.98 49/66 8-13
58 Magma 0 598.14 92.49 46/68 5-15
59 Venom 0 555.5 105.14 41/74 6-9
60 PLOW 0 540.55 116.16 47/74 2-8
61 Jackwagon 0 497.72 66.12 53/71 5-13
62 KnoxFusion 0 493.2 115.4 49/80 7-11
63 Incline 0 470.29 96.1 50/76 6-7
64 Frolic 0 458.73 88.85 53/74 3-10
65 Calypso 0 454.85 95.96 50/75 2-18
66 Medusa 0 442.22 64.25 58/72 8-8
67 Portland Rain Check 0 410.41 124.87 45/78 3-20
68 Notorious C.L.E. 0 302.98 86.73 60/80 10-12
69 Stormborn 0 291.05 63.46 62/77 8-14
70 Venom 0 278.67 110.64 56/82 3-7
71 Autonomous 0 276.44 69.55 63/80 13-17
72 Seattle Soul 0 269.19 96.89 56/82 3-20
73 Versa 0 163.15 108.98 64/85 1-15
74 Haboob 0 156.71 118.91 59/84 3-17
75 Tempo 0 138.45 127.99 62/84 3-13
76 Twisted Womxn 0 103.82 80.39 67/85 4-12
77 Sureshot 0 47.83 81.33 70/85 9-16
78 Freshwater Ultimate 0 45.38 74.66 69/84 4-12
79 Dissent 0 26.69 82.49 71/85 1-14
80 Ignite 0 24.41 252.82 43/86 0-10
81 Y'all 0 -4.36 92.46 69/85 8-15
82 Minnesota Superior A 0 -23.34 105.73 68/86 1-10
83 Ultraviolet 0 -88.78 196.44 62/86 3-6
84 Just Add Water 0 -181.15 137.21 71/86 1-20
85 Solstice 0 -318.98 102.19 79/86 2-27
86 Pickup Lines 0 -573.31 503.48 45/86 0-3

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)