Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2024-25 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Atlantic Coast 1.08 North Carolina 100.00%,   South Carolina 7.50%,   Virginia 0.60%,  
1 Great Lakes 0.01 Michigan 1.10%,   Chicago 0.30%,  
1 Metro East 0.28 Ottawa 27.70%,  
3 New England 3.85 Massachusetts 100.00%,   Brown 89.70%,   Northeastern 72.60%,   Tufts 72.00%,   Vermont 50.20%,   McGill 0.10%,  
1 North Central 1 Carleton College 100.00%,   Minnesota 0.40%,   Wisconsin 0.10%,  
6 Northwest 6.19 Oregon 100.00%,   Oregon State 100.00%,   Washington 100.00%,   Brigham Young 100.00%,   British Columbia 97.10%,   Victoria 49.10%,   Western Washington 44.40%,   Utah 16.90%,   Utah Valley 11.20%,  
1 Ohio Valley 0.33 Penn State 28.30%,   Pittsburgh 5.20%,  
2 South Central 2.94 Colorado 100.00%,   Texas 98.00%,   Washington University 95.50%,  
1 Southeast 1.34 Georgia 72.20%,   Georgia Tech 44.70%,   Ave Maria 17.50%,  
3 Southwest 2.98 California-Santa Cruz 100.00%,   Cal Poly-SLO 100.00%,   California 97.60%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.081 0.014 0.277 3.846 1.005 6.187 0.335 2.935 1.344 2.976
Autos (all @ 1) 0.081 -0.986 -0.723 2.846 0.005 5.187 -0.665 1.935 0.344 1.976
Northwest (@ 2) 0.081 -0.986 -0.723 2.846 0.005 4.187 -0.665 1.935 0.344 1.976
Northwest (@ 3) 0.081 -0.986 -0.723 2.846 0.005 3.187 -0.665 1.935 0.344 1.976
Northwest (@ 4) 0.081 -0.986 -0.723 2.846 0.005 2.187 -0.665 1.935 0.344 1.976
New England (@ 2) 0.081 -0.986 -0.723 1.846 0.005 2.187 -0.665 1.935 0.344 1.976
Northwest (@ 5) 0.081 -0.986 -0.723 1.846 0.005 1.187 -0.665 1.935 0.344 1.976
Southwest (@ 2) 0.081 -0.986 -0.723 1.846 0.005 1.187 -0.665 1.935 0.344 0.976
South Central (@ 2) 0.081 -0.986 -0.723 1.846 0.005 1.187 -0.665 0.935 0.344 0.976
New England (@ 3) 0.081 -0.986 -0.723 0.846 0.005 1.187 -0.665 0.935 0.344 0.976
Northwest (@ 6) 0.081 -0.986 -0.723 0.846 0.005 0.187 -0.665 0.935 0.344 0.976
Southwest (@ 3) 0.081 -0.986 -0.723 0.846 0.005 0.187 -0.665 0.935 0.344 -0.024
Total 1 1 1 3 1 6 1 2 1 3

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Massachusetts 1 2246.22 48.73 1/7 18-4
2 Colorado 1 2220.35 60.76 1/10 18-4
3 North Carolina 1 2192.44 47.01 1/10 22-3
4 Carleton College 1 2190.17 45.44 1/10 19-3
5 Oregon 1 2180.99 76.47 1/13 24-4
6 Cal Poly-SLO 1 2115.41 48.08 1/17 21-6
7 Washington 1 2104.71 61.84 1/19 15-6
8 Brigham Young 1 2059.13 45.57 3/19 18-2
9 California-Santa Cruz 1 2011.42 44.1 5/20 17-8
10 Oregon State 1 1969.64 39.92 6/21 19-10
11 Texas 0.98 1958.14 54.69 5/29 15-7
12 California 0.976 1957.99 55.11 6/28 17-11
13 British Columbia 0.971 1960.68 59.66 5/33 11-6
14 Washington University 0.955 1938.78 59.6 6/28 14-6
15 Brown 0.897 1906.71 51.84 7/31 14-8
16 Northeastern 0.726 1883.13 59.28 8/36 10-13
17 Georgia 0.722 1879.3 57.12 8/32 11-10
18 Tufts 0.72 1884.81 68.29 6/39 13-6
19 Vermont 0.502 1844.86 61.67 7/41 8-14
20 Victoria 0.491 1837.7 69.67 8/45 11-10
21 Georgia Tech 0.447 1840.75 58.76 9/37 12-8
22 Western Washington 0.444 1838.51 49.73 10/34 12-8
23 Penn State 0.283 1814.45 54.83 10/34 8-11
24 Ottawa 0.277 1812.48 48.91 12/36 6-0
25 Ave Maria 0.175 1713.15 134.93 6/92 12-0
26 Utah 0.169 1784.03 66.38 11/43 10-9
27 Utah Valley 0.112 1742.57 82.14 9/62 7-5
28 South Carolina 0.075 1761.78 57.6 12/56 15-3
29 Pittsburgh 0.052 1751.66 58.73 14/57 8-14
30 Michigan 0.011 1639.44 90.65 14/80 7-6
31 Virginia 0.006 1666.16 69.99 19/64 11-7
32 Minnesota 0.004 1700.18 54.42 19/58 8-14
33 Chicago 0.003 1641.84 76.88 19/72 11-8
34 Wisconsin 0.001 1615.8 66.21 19/88 11-11
35 McGill 0.001 1577.51 67.49 20/77 8-7
36 Davenport 0 1967.16 97.53 1/31 15-1
37 California-Santa Barbara 0 1650.12 40.11 26/56 9-17
38 Lewis & Clark 0 1644.14 97.82 12/88 17-2
39 Cincinnati 0 1620.51 73.33 22/75 11-2
40 Utah State 0 1620.27 58.53 26/61 5-9
41 North Carolina-Wilmington 0 1618.88 62.31 22/72 13-12
42 California-San Diego 0 1610.91 49.48 24/62 8-16
43 Stanford 0 1605.97 38.36 30/58 17-15
44 Virginia Tech 0 1599.96 47.68 28/62 14-8
45 Emory 0 1594.8 64.06 24/67 12-10
46 Middlebury 0 1587.15 53.91 25/71 14-5
47 Elon 0 1586.14 46.65 27/70 20-5
48 North Carolina State 0 1550.72 51.58 25/80 13-11
49 Colorado State 0 1550.29 65.86 27/86 5-13
50 Maryland 0 1548.88 60.49 30/79 13-5
51 Purdue 0 1545.65 71.99 23/88 11-9
52 William & Mary 0 1537.28 60.93 27/78 16-9
53 Whitman 0 1536.11 84.99 25/100 8-4
54 UCLA 0 1524.93 66.74 26/87 9-13
55 Carleton College-CHOP 0 1522.99 81.09 25/90 13-4
56 Illinois 0 1517.43 54.99 30/80 13-6
57 Cornell 0 1507.49 53.37 35/79 14-7
58 Grand Canyon 0 1480.51 111.34 22/119 11-1
59 Michigan State 0 1471.04 72.79 32/107 12-5
60 Alabama-Huntsville 0 1450.39 73.99 31/106 4-8
61 Tulane 0 1450.05 64.19 34/95 5-9
62 James Madison 0 1444.09 52.46 40/96 12-13
63 Notre Dame 0 1443.91 74.71 34/110 10-10
64 Dartmouth 0 1438.83 56.99 40/105 10-11
65 Tennessee 0 1436.65 52.99 41/100 8-10
66 Indiana 0 1430.8 60.99 35/97 12-8
67 Wesleyan 0 1415.53 98.55 29/147 7-6
68 Auburn 0 1412.85 76.51 34/113 8-8
69 Franciscan 0 1393.46 101.4 27/130 10-3
70 Case Western Reserve 0 1387.6 77.34 35/117 11-7
71 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0 1385.69 86.22 34/127 14-6
72 Oklahoma Christian 0 1370.29 76.26 38/136 11-7
73 Williams 0 1363.47 69.29 44/133 11-7
74 Colorado College 0 1358.81 73.8 40/128 13-6
75 Carnegie Mellon 0 1352.66 55.25 55/110 10-8
76 Iowa State 0 1341.17 72.15 47/126 14-6
77 Southern California 0 1332.64 71.54 48/133 14-8
78 Richmond 0 1332.4 53.85 52/111 11-10
79 Florida 0 1331.87 50.05 58/114 7-8
80 Rochester 0 1316.94 71.65 53/140 9-4
81 St Olaf 0 1314.63 77.1 50/133 17-8
82 Missouri S&T 0 1310.69 79.01 46/139 14-5
83 Marquette 0 1309.44 109.46 34/154 6-1
84 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 1306.32 86.75 44/158 7-11
85 Ohio State 0 1305.81 75.57 47/155 8-12
86 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1302.2 98.09 36/160 12-6
87 Temple 0 1293.99 65.57 60/141 8-12
88 Georgetown 0 1291.89 66.83 59/141 7-12
89 North Carolina-Asheville 0 1285.08 82.99 50/149 8-4
90 Cal Poly-CCWR 0 1284.69 80.04 54/159 4-1
91 Colorado-B 0 1270.85 98.05 45/169 14-3
92 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 1268.23 77.72 59/158 8-5
93 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1265.01 77.07 55/145 12-5
94 Appalachian State 0 1257.92 72.13 55/153 14-12
95 Duke 0 1255.92 65.18 58/144 11-9
96 Claremont 0 1254.5 107.8 47/190 7-4
97 Boston College 0 1251.78 87.88 54/158 8-6
98 Missouri 0 1249.14 76.11 58/154 11-9
99 Oberlin 0 1246.76 59.38 65/139 12-3
100 Yale 0 1243.65 82.79 51/166 10-9
101 Syracuse 0 1241.86 74.41 60/158 12-12
102 Texas A&M 0 1230.7 67.22 63/157 11-15
103 Iowa 0 1224 82.91 61/157 15-5
104 Liberty 0 1215.62 78.65 64/162 13-5
105 San Diego State 0 1210.44 61.97 68/161 17-6
106 Gonzaga 0 1203.87 62.94 68/157 4-7
107 Columbia 0 1197.84 58.9 71/150 10-8
108 Berry 0 1191.98 64.66 67/152 15-3
109 Lehigh 0 1185.9 79.99 67/176 10-7
110 Bowdoin 0 1184.91 65.91 72/161 18-2
111 Vermont-B 0 1184.01 80.96 63/174 12-10
112 California-Irvine 0 1180.96 92.91 63/186 5-6
113 Alabama 0 1180.54 62.45 69/155 12-10
114 Colorado Mines 0 1180.09 64.03 68/162 12-6
115 West Chester 0 1170.86 71.61 74/165 14-5
116 British Columbia -B 0 1169.19 64.38 76/167 7-6
117 Central Florida 0 1165.8 62.86 73/165 9-9
118 Connecticut 0 1164.54 64.4 76/164 10-8
119 San Jose State 0 1154.69 43.75 88/163 14-7
120 Simon Fraser 0 1151.59 162.49 41/240 3-4
121 Boston University 0 1145.2 77.46 74/180 11-7
122 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1139.17 63.09 81/176 9-8
123 Denver 0 1129.58 75.14 78/183 12-6
124 Puget Sound 0 1122.72 64.07 72/170 8-7
125 Mississippi State 0 1120.92 47.27 88/162 18-12
126 Clemson 0 1118.58 66.57 80/176 12-5
127 Tufts-B 0 1111.12 151.55 43/239 6-3
128 Arizona State 0 1107.66 56.06 88/176 4-8
129 SUNY-Binghamton 0 1107.19 67.53 80/179 7-13
130 North Texas 0 1107.02 69.99 80/189 13-6
131 Charleston 0 1105.42 96.51 73/196 9-2
132 Lipscomb 0 1105.15 76.73 68/191 7-7
133 South Florida 0 1102.8 58.03 92/175 5-10
134 Rutgers 0 1098.69 105.61 67/202 8-9
135 Pittsburgh-B 0 1097.06 50.92 92/173 12-7
136 RIT 0 1076.79 58.09 98/183 10-10
137 Santa Clara 0 1072.37 65.01 93/190 4-7
138 Northwestern 0 1069.47 57.13 93/176 4-7
139 Florida State 0 1068.01 67.17 88/186 9-14
140 California-Santa Cruz-B 0 1063.23 56.71 100/181 11-5
141 Maine 0 1056.08 68.26 72/202 7-3
142 Wichita State 0 1049.24 112.09 70/220 3-1
143 Grand Valley 0 1047.82 63.92 88/187 10-4
144 Kenyon 0 1045.87 85.34 83/215 8-5
145 Kentucky 0 1043.39 76.76 96/193 7-5
146 Bates 0 1042.35 95.97 71/208 11-9
147 Michigan Tech 0 1040.39 43.78 118/175 7-13
148 Dayton 0 1037.73 78.89 96/205 8-5
149 Macalester 0 1032.12 52.9 93/183 9-10
150 Butler 0 1030.89 70.49 94/206 8-4
151 Rhode Island 0 1026.72 66.53 93/195 11-6
152 Carleton University 0 1018.63 123.74 53/247 3-4
153 Grinnell 0 1016.14 65.02 104/199 8-4
154 Davidson 0 1006.53 68.16 106/198 9-8
155 Wisconsin-La Crosse 0 1006.18 72.97 108/207 8-5
156 Johns Hopkins 0 987.96 74.32 98/206 11-14
157 George Mason 0 981.04 62.92 116/207 11-8
158 LSU 0 980.95 72.98 96/202 7-9
159 Washington-B 0 969.28 46.55 131/197 5-2
160 Ohio 0 965.7 73.5 110/214 14-11
161 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 961.37 45.77 130/200 10-8
162 Montana State 0 960.7 87.36 94/220 4-3
163 Vanderbilt 0 960.07 72 113/225 8-5
164 Messiah 0 959.43 78.04 106/229 7-12
165 Brandeis 0 953.43 52.68 122/202 12-8
166 Kansas 0 949.58 88.58 99/237 8-5
167 Truman State 0 947.93 73.76 108/222 14-4
168 Brigham Young-B 0 947.54 56.62 121/208 9-5
169 Alabama-Birmingham 0 946.35 56.33 125/209 11-3
170 Massachusetts -B 0 938.77 62.2 125/209 3-10
171 Dickinson 0 930.92 68.38 122/216 7-12
172 California-Davis 0 925.46 104.31 96/255 1-12
173 Minnesota-B 0 919.28 47.13 135/210 6-11
174 Delaware 0 916.52 68.65 128/226 10-8
175 Towson 0 908.57 74.31 120/233 9-9
176 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 908.27 73.14 127/228 10-7
177 Arizona 0 902.02 52.5 138/217 11-6
178 Miami (Florida) 0 898.32 79.43 124/227 9-3
179 Pennsylvania 0 896.37 72.41 128/222 6-11
180 American 0 888.86 70.12 119/226 9-10
181 Toronto 0 879.28 110.87 100/265 2-5
182 Kennesaw State 0 877.61 65.63 137/227 4-13
183 Ithaca 0 877.42 74.55 126/233 10-7
184 East Carolina 0 872.13 58.54 144/227 14-13
185 Union (Tennessee) 0 872.05 45.01 153/214 10-11
186 Occidental 0 866.67 66.74 135/223 4-5
187 Saint Louis 0 850.97 63.58 144/238 5-13
188 Oklahoma State 0 849.77 60.06 147/227 13-8
189 Oregon State-B 0 845.63 61.5 143/230 5-5
190 Cal Poly-Pomona 0 845.33 75.15 137/238 4-8
191 North Carolina-B 0 844.25 79.35 117/248 10-9
192 Florida Tech 0 835.63 109.33 121/263 4-0
193 Princeton 0 835.34 91.87 138/246 3-7
194 Oregon -B 0 834.59 64.13 150/228 4-6
195 Miami (Ohio) 0 827.6 74.72 134/248 10-2
196 Georgia Tech-B 0 820.86 71.03 138/236 8-3
197 Georgia State 0 818.36 96.62 134/261 4-6
198 Northern Iowa 0 818.27 54.99 160/228 11-7
199 Christopher Newport 0 802.55 68.57 149/249 3-9
200 North Carolina State-B 0 794.11 89.61 130/264 4-6
201 Akron 0 791.69 112.94 122/284 6-4
202 Nebraska 0 788.29 133.47 96/286 6-5
203 Baylor 0 779.47 72.94 157/260 12-4
204 Ave Maria-B 0 778.44 117.78 79/287 3-2
205 Northeastern-B 0 752.18 79.77 164/262 11-4
206 Winona State 0 752.16 67.76 163/258 12-6
207 Arkansas 0 746.06 66.29 168/261 5-6
208 Kent State 0 740.16 67.6 161/265 4-6
209 Nevada-Reno 0 734.86 83.93 150/273 7-4
210 Air Force 0 728.28 77.09 156/271 3-9
211 MIT 0 718.8 59.56 180/258 9-8
212 Minnesota-Duluth 0 718.33 84.11 156/277 3-6
213 SUNY-Albany 0 702.91 77.71 168/273 5-6
214 Harvard 0 693.32 60.07 170/264 6-8
215 Penn State-B 0 691.74 39.2 195/245 13-5
216 John Brown 0 690.03 94 164/287 6-4
217 UCLA-B 0 688.64 94.22 147/278 4-9
218 North Florida 0 686.97 77.51 161/272 0-3
219 Colby 0 684.92 115.66 131/303 7-7
220 College of New Jersey 0 683.53 90.75 144/288 4-3
221 Wisconsin-B 0 681.47 97.29 157/300 6-8
222 Seattle 0 676.95 127.67 137/309 3-2
223 Haverford 0 670.62 70.88 182/273 10-8
224 Salisbury 0 668.38 71.67 182/273 8-3
225 Georgia Southern 0 659.82 62.3 184/274 8-9
226 Portland 0 647.53 70.52 187/277 6-7
227 Texas-Dallas 0 640.33 85.47 174/286 4-8
228 Michigan State-B 0 640.01 145.13 139/318 5-1
229 Illinois State 0 635.94 60.31 197/281 7-13
230 NYU 0 632.45 131.79 136/337 2-9
231 Montana 0 626.79 181.46 107/348 3-3
232 Reed 0 624.06 86.94 177/308 5-7
233 West Virginia 0 622.13 125.17 165/309 5-4
234 Loyola Marymount 0 621.21 70.62 179/285 3-8
235 Toledo 0 617.93 85.96 159/293 5-6
236 Connecticut College 0 615.64 53.83 201/278 6-4
237 Tarleton State 0 609.25 115.7 166/313 6-5
238 George Washington 0 605.93 94.83 165/305 5-7
239 Xavier 0 605 91.9 179/308 1-8
240 Eastern Michigan 0 600.33 134.05 131/321 3-4
241 Santa Clara-B 0 599.78 45.07 209/274 1-2
242 Western Michigan 0 596.74 177.89 110/334 3-3
243 Skidmore 0 594.1 76.8 195/294 7-6
244 Cedarville 0 592.76 86.93 165/309 4-10
245 Wooster 0 586.81 72.77 195/295 4-2
246 Trinity 0 578.86 42.43 213/278 7-11
247 Michigan-B 0 575.39 76.36 201/306 3-9
248 Texas-B 0 573.9 83.62 188/309 6-4
249 Embry-Riddle 0 570.7 143.82 157/338 3-3
250 Drexel 0 568.36 62.88 202/295 12-6
251 Illinois-B 0 567.18 68.89 201/302 8-12
252 St John's (Minnesota) 0 565.89 75.65 205/301 3-8
253 Wake Forest 0 563.78 64.83 210/298 7-12
254 Swarthmore 0 561.92 125.26 158/335 4-2
255 East Tennessee State 0 560.33 65.2 209/295 5-8
256 Vermont-C 0 550.79 143.25 149/335 4-1
257 Colorado State-B 0 549.56 56.5 211/294 5-9
258 Texas Tech 0 549.54 29.27 225/278 5-7
259 Georgia-B 0 547.71 81.37 196/309 5-7
260 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 543.82 56.05 214/300 2-7
261 California-B 0 536.64 41.63 222/290 7-17
262 Jacksonville State 0 534.66 65.69 212/302 5-11
263 Harding 0 527.08 60.98 208/309 8-18
264 Chico State 0 525.98 56.33 221/299 1-9
265 Northern Arizona 0 524.72 41.77 222/296 4-7
266 Texas State 0 523.39 66.88 205/304 6-10
267 Virginia Commonwealth 0 496.02 59.54 221/308 1-10
268 Southern California-B 0 488.8 73.21 217/308 4-2
269 SUNY-Geneseo 0 478.13 77.86 210/313 6-7
270 Pacific Lutheran 0 468.66 67.5 218/319 3-9
271 Central Connecticut State 0 465.18 73.49 218/318 6-5
272 Whitworth 0 464.78 119.77 190/340 3-6
273 Grand Canyon-B 0 457.19 57.35 231/313 2-4
274 Wisconsin-Whitewater 0 455.11 111.36 196/343 3-3
275 Wisconsin-Platteville 0 455.05 98.48 180/329 3-9
276 Brown-B 0 452.83 88.51 215/337 5-8
277 Minnesota State-Mankato 0 450.65 144.43 154/342 4-2
278 Luther 0 448.53 72.31 217/322 8-3
279 Tennessee Tech 0 434.47 53.8 246/313 1-6
280 Oklahoma 0 430.71 44.93 247/308 6-9
281 Virginia Tech-B 0 428.66 89.62 209/330 1-5
282 Grace 0 420.5 142.16 160/349 2-3
283 Texas-San Antonio 0 416.19 80.48 229/328 3-7
284 Cal State-Long Beach 0 405.97 127.68 192/344 1-7
285 DePaul 0 401.41 91.09 224/341 4-8
286 Worcester Polytechnic 0 399.74 66.64 235/322 5-9
287 Florida-B 0 394.65 82.78 216/332 5-5
288 St Thomas 0 394.39 100.06 211/338 4-8
289 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 389.28 69.69 226/325 2-7
290 Navy 0 377.75 91.09 231/341 0-10
291 Willamette 0 377.63 154.51 194/357 2-3
292 Samford 0 372.47 113.14 211/347 3-4
293 Loyola-Chicago 0 369.2 100.77 218/342 5-6
294 Massachusetts-Lowell 0 368.83 102.22 228/341 7-6
295 Cincinnati -B 0 358.87 106.78 218/350 3-7
296 Northeastern-C 0 357.84 61.61 254/328 10-8
297 Ball State 0 344.37 64.14 257/333 8-10
298 Mississippi State-B 0 339.18 52.82 264/328 5-12
299 Penn State-Behrend 0 328.6 90.24 237/345 3-3
300 Washington University-B 0 327.42 61.82 253/334 4-14
301 Amherst 0 326.77 62.53 254/332 6-8
302 Mississippi 0 316.42 82.23 244/340 3-8
303 Carleton College-C 0 315.94 84.72 244/341 2-3
304 Sam Houston 0 310.9 87.64 251/347 4-4
305 Alabama-B 0 300.63 75.2 258/340 5-9
306 Rensselaer Polytech 0 293.78 69.68 255/348 1-10
307 Texas A&M-B 0 277.28 84.27 246/342 2-8
308 Rowan 0 276.53 109.36 241/355 7-6
309 Wright State 0 273.65 79.63 249/345 4-12
310 Stanford-B 0 265.28 71.82 266/342 0-5
311 Case Western Reserve-B 0 257.9 137.63 205/360 3-3
312 Kansas State 0 255.95 97.11 245/358 2-9
313 Minnesota-C 0 255.21 102.4 248/356 4-7
314 Villanova 0 254 72.39 275/347 4-14
315 Washington State 0 252.52 163.8 207/370 2-5
316 Boise State 0 243.34 124.05 227/362 1-5
317 Pennsylvania Western 0 242.62 122.73 224/358 4-6
318 Wisconsin-Stevens Point 0 238.46 162.59 202/369 1-4
319 SUNY-Cortland 0 220.25 86.73 255/353 1-9
320 Connecticut-B 0 209.31 86.08 266/352 4-9
321 Cornell-B 0 198.49 78.14 281/352 10-10
322 Knox 0 197.35 120.14 234/364 2-7
323 Hofstra 0 190.83 83.12 267/355 6-8
324 California-San Diego-B 0 179.17 82.05 286/353 3-8
325 Bentley 0 175.99 125.63 256/367 0-6
326 Purdue-B 0 166.54 103.93 252/359 3-7
327 Colorado Mesa 0 166.52 151.99 221/369 2-5
328 Delaware-B 0 164.96 159.3 211/369 1-4
329 MIT-B 0 147.92 162.86 228/367 1-3
330 San Diego State-B 0 136.84 100.71 276/361 0-9
331 Nova Southeastern 0 130.92 54.8 301/351 2-3
332 Portland State 0 128.62 132.35 270/366 1-11
333 Rice 0 110.48 65.92 297/358 3-6
334 Lehigh-B 0 109.11 97.17 288/363 5-6
335 Western New England 0 108.03 159.48 231/371 1-6
336 Rose-Hulman 0 106.67 48.77 312/351 3-9
337 Army 0 105.76 81.65 298/362 2-8
338 South Carolina-B 0 105.25 71.97 296/357 2-13
339 Georgia College 0 102.44 69.68 305/359 1-10
340 Illinois-Chicago 0 98.13 145.86 254/370 2-4
341 Clemson-B 0 88.22 119.71 281/366 0-6
342 Cal Poly-SLO-C 0 74.67 191.76 221/374 0-5
343 Maryland-B 0 32.3 48.64 320/359 2-4
344 Harvard-B 0 22.74 76.7 304/363 3-12
345 LSU-B 0 2.51 55.91 326/361 0-4
346 SUNY-Binghamton-B 0 -3.07 151.98 276/375 3-3
347 Denver-B 0 -7.4 113.42 293/371 1-10
348 Dayton-B 0 -13.8 105.71 292/367 2-4
349 West Chester-B 0 -45.28 91.41 313/370 5-12
350 Dartmouth-B 0 -58.56 151.87 279/371 2-5
351 Stevens Tech 0 -65.28 119.81 307/372 3-8
352 Iowa-B 0 -67.98 93.19 320/370 2-4
353 Ohio-B 0 -70.62 74.75 325/366 2-7
354 South Florida-B 0 -71.99 101.84 310/369 0-15
355 Dallas 0 -89.78 116.3 312/372 1-10
356 Colorado Mines-B 0 -91.07 231.03 246/377 0-6
357 Tennessee-Chattanooga -B 0 -95.43 160.19 292/374 0-7
358 SUNY-Buffalo-B 0 -96.61 84.37 327/369 0-6
359 Georgetown-B 0 -120.11 152.31 290/374 4-1
360 Stephen F Austin 0 -137.7 88.8 336/371 0-10
361 Arizona State-B 0 -142.83 229.49 250/378 0-5
362 Notre Dame-B 0 -158.09 173.68 304/377 1-2
363 George Washington-B 0 -189.06 134.38 316/375 5-6
364 Carthage 0 -273.88 144.3 326/376 1-9
365 Boston University-B 0 -289.83 181.35 307/377 0-5
366 New Hampshire 0 -291.57 135.44 329/377 1-6
367 Richmond-B 0 -324.45 116.01 347/375 1-2
368 Illinois-C 0 -325.04 167.93 289/377 0-3
369 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B 0 -341.21 79.25 354/376 2-9
370 Wisconsin-Eau Claire-B 0 -356.93 311.98 256/378 0-5
371 SUNY-Albany-B 0 -453.18 86.04 361/377 0-6
372 Wisconsin-C 0 -539.18 182.93 341/378 1-5
373 Denison 0 -539.47 214.39 332/378 0-5
374 American-B 0 -637.81 223 324/378 0-11
375 Siena 0 -645.21 131.85 360/378 0-10
376 Middlebury-B 0 -745.18 311.13 314/378 0-6
377 Iowa State-B 0 -855.66 183.93 363/378 1-4
378 Grinnell-B 0 -980.68 443.58 273/378 0-3

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)