#324 Villanova (4-14)

avg: 260.06  •  sd: 73.37  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
180 American Loss 6-12 326.42 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
184 East Carolina** Loss 2-13 289.71 Ignored Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
247 George Washington Loss 9-11 376.68 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
159 George Mason Loss 9-10 872.77 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
294 Maryland-Baltimore County Loss 9-12 54.49 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
272 Virginia Commonwealth Loss 8-9 386.33 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
330 Cornell-B Win 13-7 790.11 Mar 15th Natalies Animal Rescue 2025
259 Drexel Loss 9-11 329.57 Mar 15th Natalies Animal Rescue 2025
390 Siena** Win 13-1 -46.18 Ignored Mar 15th Natalies Animal Rescue 2025
177 Towson** Loss 1-13 325.57 Ignored Mar 15th Natalies Animal Rescue 2025
330 Cornell-B Loss 4-7 -263.58 Mar 16th Natalies Animal Rescue 2025
259 Drexel Loss 7-12 58.27 Mar 16th Natalies Animal Rescue 2025
366 Dartmouth-B Win 13-6 532.46 Mar 22nd Jersey Devil 2025
349 Lehigh-B Loss 6-7 -10.94 Mar 22nd Jersey Devil 2025
305 Northeastern-C Win 9-8 483.84 Mar 22nd Jersey Devil 2025
234 Penn State-B Loss 6-9 237.78 Mar 22nd Jersey Devil 2025
349 Lehigh-B Loss 7-9 -165.28 Mar 23rd Jersey Devil 2025
372 West Chester-B Loss 7-8 -202.42 Mar 23rd Jersey Devil 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)