#209 Arkansas (5-6)

avg: 762.15  •  sd: 70.17  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
104 Alabama Loss 6-13 638.96 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
258 Trinity Win 9-7 858.73 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
139 Florida State Loss 6-12 504.38 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
135 Mississippi State Loss 3-13 511.28 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
258 Trinity Win 9-8 704.39 Mar 15th Mens Centex 2025
136 North Texas Loss 5-13 510.47 Mar 15th Mens Centex 2025
270 Texas State Win 10-5 1098.43 Mar 15th Mens Centex 2025
239 Texas-Dallas Win 9-8 771.77 Mar 15th Mens Centex 2025
135 Mississippi State Loss 10-15 657.68 Mar 16th Mens Centex 2025
227 Tarleton State Win 15-8 1260.1 Mar 16th Mens Centex 2025
98 Boston College Loss 10-15 818.1 Mar 16th Mens Centex 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)