#71 Case Western Reserve (11-7)

avg: 1405.06  •  sd: 78.42  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
48 Maryland Loss 10-13 1237.52 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
97 Duke Loss 11-13 1044.58 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
3 North Carolina Loss 8-13 1709.96 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
54 Carleton College-CHOP Win 15-12 1838.55 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
45 Elon Win 13-10 1933.19 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
97 Duke Win 13-10 1601.57 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
138 RIT Win 11-9 1342.12 Mar 1st Oak Creek Challenge 2025
336 SUNY-Cortland** Win 13-0 791.65 Ignored Mar 1st Oak Creek Challenge 2025
177 Towson Win 10-6 1421.73 Mar 1st Oak Creek Challenge 2025
113 Lehigh Win 12-7 1724.75 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2025
157 Johns Hopkins Win 8-7 1130.84 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2025
132 Rutgers Loss 9-10 991.55 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2025
132 Rutgers Win 9-8 1241.55 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
56 Cornell Loss 8-9 1398.94 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
131 Pittsburgh-B Win 15-4 1721.3 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
52 William & Mary Win 11-10 1676.49 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
83 SUNY-Buffalo Loss 8-9 1195.93 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
87 Temple Loss 9-13 892.35 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)