#251 North Carolina State-B (13-10)

avg: 942.94  •  sd: 71.48  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
114 Davidson Loss 5-10 863.37 Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
198 Messiah Loss 5-12 528.99 Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
325 South Carolina-B Loss 6-7 495.93 Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
212 West Virginia Win 9-5 1608.56 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
325 South Carolina-B Win 8-3 1220.93 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
215 East Carolina Loss 7-8 940.59 Mar 23rd Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
265 Georgia College Win 13-1 1489.6 Mar 23rd Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
86 Cedarville** Loss 3-13 955.52 Ignored Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
246 Georgia Southern Win 9-8 1095.37 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
325 South Carolina-B Win 6-5 745.93 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
179 North Carolina-Asheville Loss 9-10 1074.53 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
342 James Madison-B Win 10-7 944.53 Apr 20th Southern Atlantic Coast Dev Mens Conferences 2024
392 Richmond-B** Win 15-2 767.68 Ignored Apr 20th Southern Atlantic Coast Dev Mens Conferences 2024
325 South Carolina-B Win 14-1 1220.93 Apr 20th Southern Atlantic Coast Dev Mens Conferences 2024
394 William & Mary-B** Win 15-5 753.15 Ignored Apr 20th Southern Atlantic Coast Dev Mens Conferences 2024
214 North Carolina-B Loss 13-14 948.8 Apr 21st Southern Atlantic Coast Dev Mens Conferences 2024
336 Virginia-B Loss 9-13 151.37 Apr 21st Southern Atlantic Coast Dev Mens Conferences 2024
325 South Carolina-B Win 13-6 1220.93 Apr 21st Southern Atlantic Coast Dev Mens Conferences 2024
390 Delaware-B** Win 15-0 789.93 Ignored May 4th Atlantic Coast Dev College Mens Regionals 2024
214 North Carolina-B Loss 9-15 558.31 May 4th Atlantic Coast Dev College Mens Regionals 2024
325 South Carolina-B Win 15-2 1220.93 May 4th Atlantic Coast Dev College Mens Regionals 2024
311 Maryland-B Win 14-5 1274.55 May 5th Atlantic Coast Dev College Mens Regionals 2024
214 North Carolina-B Loss 6-15 473.8 May 5th Atlantic Coast Dev College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)