#34 California-San Diego (14-18)

avg: 1903.45  •  sd: 42.36  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
17 Brigham Young Loss 14-15 1995.63 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
106 Northwestern Win 15-9 1998.39 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
22 Washington Loss 7-15 1433.49 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
24 UCLA Loss 12-13 1895.7 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
40 Victoria Loss 9-12 1512.12 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
41 Oklahoma Christian Loss 11-12 1727.87 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
53 Colorado State Win 14-12 1977.01 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
1 Colorado Loss 5-15 1899.73 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
67 Stanford Win 10-7 2061.23 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
29 Utah Loss 10-12 1708.94 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
21 British Columbia Loss 9-10 1924.89 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
125 California-Irvine Win 14-7 1974.8 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
60 California-Santa Barbara Win 12-8 2156.75 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
21 British Columbia Loss 8-9 1924.89 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
24 UCLA Loss 4-15 1420.7 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
39 Illinois Loss 10-11 1760.37 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2024
36 Wisconsin Loss 11-12 1768.9 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2024
43 Tulane Loss 6-7 1713.42 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2024
71 Grand Canyon Win 11-4 2229.57 Mar 3rd Stanford Invite 2024
66 Western Washington Loss 8-10 1410.77 Mar 3rd Stanford Invite 2024
5 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 11-13 2168.01 Apr 13th SoCal D I Mens Conferences 2024
125 California-Irvine Win 13-5 1991.92 Apr 13th SoCal D I Mens Conferences 2024
192 Loyola Marymount** Win 12-5 1755.9 Ignored Apr 13th SoCal D I Mens Conferences 2024
24 UCLA Loss 10-12 1782.58 Apr 14th SoCal D I Mens Conferences 2024
60 California-Santa Barbara Win 13-5 2315.6 Apr 14th SoCal D I Mens Conferences 2024
24 UCLA Win 11-10 2145.7 Apr 14th SoCal D I Mens Conferences 2024
121 Cal Poly-SLO-B Win 15-6 2001.25 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
125 California-Irvine Win 13-8 1888.08 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
24 UCLA Loss 9-13 1602.13 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
144 Santa Clara Win 14-4 1936.2 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
15 California Loss 10-13 1829.32 Apr 28th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
60 California-Santa Barbara Win 8-3 2315.6 Apr 28th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)