#328 Nevada-Reno (4-13)

avg: 602  •  sd: 104.96  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
180 Brigham Young-B Loss 0-13 594.94 Mar 9th Big Sky Brawl 2024
288 Montana Loss 5-8 327.25 Mar 9th Big Sky Brawl 2024
58 Utah Valley** Loss 4-13 1137.54 Ignored Mar 9th Big Sky Brawl 2024
247 Northern Arizona Loss 3-8 365.2 Mar 9th Big Sky Brawl 2024
371 Boise State Win 8-4 921.57 Mar 10th Big Sky Brawl 2024
288 Montana Loss 1-7 180.85 Mar 10th Big Sky Brawl 2024
58 Utah Valley** Loss 1-13 1137.54 Ignored Mar 10th Big Sky Brawl 2024
235 Claremont Win 10-7 1384.87 Mar 24th Southwest Showdown 2024
192 Loyola Marymount Loss 6-13 555.9 Mar 24th Southwest Showdown 2024
339 Occidental Win 11-8 924.02 Mar 24th Southwest Showdown 2024
416 San Diego State-B** Win 15-2 600 Ignored Mar 24th Southwest Showdown 2024
15 California** Loss 0-15 1557.46 Ignored Apr 13th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2024
230 California-Davis Loss 9-14 541.52 Apr 13th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2024
67 Stanford** Loss 5-15 1071.57 Ignored Apr 13th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2024
338 Cal Poly-Humboldt Loss 4-7 67.4 Apr 14th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2024
344 Chico State Loss 12-13 415.15 Apr 14th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2024
144 Santa Clara Loss 7-14 753.31 Apr 14th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)