#34 Lewis & Clark (17-2)

avg: 1659.3  •  sd: 97.5  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
76 Colorado College Win 12-8 1810.87 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
117 Colorado Mines Win 13-5 1789.25 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
242 Reed** Win 13-5 1240.47 Ignored Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
213 Air Force Win 13-8 1243.02 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
95 Claremont Win 13-9 1694.21 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
53 Whitman Loss 11-13 1319.45 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
338 Colorado Mesa** Win 13-1 783.72 Ignored Mar 1st Snow Melt 2025
368 Colorado Mines-B** Win 13-1 529.03 Ignored Mar 1st Snow Melt 2025
124 Denver Win 13-4 1746.36 Mar 1st Snow Melt 2025
165 Montana State** Win 13-5 1574.46 Ignored Mar 1st Snow Melt 2025
262 California-B** Win 15-2 1158.86 Ignored Mar 2nd Snow Melt 2025
76 Colorado College Win 15-9 1885.19 Mar 2nd Snow Melt 2025
117 Colorado Mines Win 13-11 1418.09 Mar 2nd Snow Melt 2025
149 Davidson** Win 13-3 1654.75 Ignored Mar 29th Easterns 2025
163 Messiah** Win 13-5 1581.6 Ignored Mar 29th Easterns 2025
89 North Carolina-Asheville Win 13-1 1902.12 Mar 29th Easterns 2025
78 Richmond Win 12-7 1868.54 Mar 30th Easterns 2025
68 Wesleyan Loss 11-14 1117.97 Mar 30th Easterns 2025
73 Williams Win 15-6 1985.1 Mar 30th Easterns 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)