#321 Pennsylvania Western (5-8)

avg: 272.07  •  sd: 96.17  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
278 Central Connecticut State Loss 7-8 344.54 Mar 1st Garden State 2025
231 Salisbury Loss 6-8 384.14 Mar 1st Garden State 2025
254 Swarthmore Loss 5-10 13.37 Mar 1st Garden State 2025
299 Massachusetts-Lowell Loss 3-6 -161.69 Mar 1st Garden State 2025
330 Cornell-B Loss 3-9 -367.42 Mar 2nd Garden State 2025
299 Massachusetts-Lowell Loss 1-15 -214.99 Mar 2nd Garden State 2025
372 West Chester-B Win 12-6 501.89 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
390 Siena** Win 13-2 -46.18 Ignored Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
310 Rowan Win 10-5 891.4 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
364 SUNY-Binghamton-B Win 10-6 467.49 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
202 Vassar Loss 3-13 193.45 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
336 SUNY-Cortland Win 13-10 519.79 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
214 Vermont-C Loss 8-13 248.06 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)