#154 Macalester (9-10)

avg: 1042.94  •  sd: 53.9  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
54 Carleton College-CHOP Loss 3-13 938.06 Feb 8th Gopher Dome 2025
178 Minnesota-B Win 9-7 1200.07 Feb 8th Gopher Dome 2025
331 Minnesota-C** Win 13-5 831.6 Ignored Feb 8th Gopher Dome 2025
82 St Olaf Win 11-10 1446 Feb 8th Gopher Dome 2025
161 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Win 10-9 1109.17 Feb 8th Gopher Dome 2025
256 Illinois-B Win 10-3 1180.53 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
77 Iowa State Loss 10-13 1021.89 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
309 Washington University-B Win 13-6 917.98 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
77 Iowa State Loss 5-11 750.03 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
72 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Loss 8-12 955.46 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
221 Wisconsin-B Win 13-5 1310.71 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
156 Wisconsin-La Crosse Loss 9-10 893.24 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
100 Missouri Win 12-10 1503.48 Mar 29th Huck Finn 2025
84 Ohio State Loss 11-14 1006.33 Mar 29th Huck Finn 2025
82 St Olaf Loss 6-13 721 Mar 29th Huck Finn 2025
103 Texas A&M Loss 10-13 912.52 Mar 29th Huck Finn 2025
150 Kentucky Loss 6-8 751.76 Mar 30th Huck Finn 2025
100 Missouri Win 11-10 1390.35 Mar 30th Huck Finn 2025
141 Northwestern Loss 11-13 844.02 Mar 30th Huck Finn 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)