#279 Amherst (8-16)

avg: 835.51  •  sd: 62.18  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
138 Tufts-B Loss 9-15 848.25 Mar 2nd Grand Northeast Kickoff
225 Colby Loss 13-14 910.69 Mar 2nd Grand Northeast Kickoff
312 Western New England Win 15-12 974.16 Mar 2nd Grand Northeast Kickoff
218 Middlebury-B Win 15-9 1570.19 Mar 3rd Grand Northeast Kickoff
76 Massachusetts -B** Loss 3-15 1010.5 Ignored Mar 3rd Grand Northeast Kickoff
225 Colby Loss 12-14 814.73 Mar 3rd Grand Northeast Kickoff
115 Bowdoin** Loss 3-13 836.94 Ignored Mar 30th New England Open 2024 Open Division
293 Maine Win 9-3 1345.62 Mar 30th New England Open 2024 Open Division
385 New Hampshire Win 11-4 848.23 Mar 30th New England Open 2024 Open Division
225 Colby Loss 5-10 461.79 Mar 30th New England Open 2024 Open Division
293 Maine Loss 7-9 466.28 Mar 31st New England Open 2024 Open Division
312 Western New England Loss 8-10 411 Mar 31st New England Open 2024 Open Division
341 Holy Cross Loss 10-11 429.98 Apr 13th South New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
312 Western New England Win 12-4 1273.67 Apr 13th South New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
142 Bryant Loss 7-12 820.26 Apr 13th South New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
238 Roger Williams Loss 10-11 864.45 Apr 13th South New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
314 Clark Win 11-9 911.62 Apr 14th South New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
189 Worcester Polytechnic Institute Loss 6-14 559.5 Apr 14th South New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
312 Western New England Win 11-9 922.88 Apr 14th South New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
25 Middlebury** Loss 3-15 1404.07 Ignored May 4th New England D III College Mens Regionals 2024
225 Colby Loss 10-11 910.69 May 4th New England D III College Mens Regionals 2024
189 Worcester Polytechnic Institute Loss 5-15 559.5 May 4th New England D III College Mens Regionals 2024
308 Stonehill Win 14-10 1080.62 May 5th New England D III College Mens Regionals 2024
259 Brandeis Loss 11-12 789.93 May 5th New England D III College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)