#181 Vermont-C (6-10)

avg: 610.94  •  sd: 104.66  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
144 Skidmore Loss 3-9 312.28 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2024
150 RIT Loss 2-13 268.05 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2024
239 SUNY-Albany Win 8-5 438.6 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2024
192 Connecticut College Win 7-5 879.2 Mar 31st Northeast Classic 2024
191 Syracuse Loss 3-7 -47.46 Mar 31st Northeast Classic 2024
180 SUNY-Buffalo Win 5-4 745.02 Mar 31st Northeast Classic 2024
68 Vermont-B** Loss 2-10 837.43 Ignored Apr 20th New England Dev Womens Conferences 2024
216 Northeastern-B Win 8-6 605.74 Apr 20th New England Dev Womens Conferences 2024
208 Brown-B Win 11-4 968.51 Apr 21st New England Dev Womens Conferences 2024
68 Vermont-B Loss 9-11 1188.22 Apr 21st New England Dev Womens Conferences 2024
216 Northeastern-B Win 11-4 905.25 Apr 21st New England Dev Womens Conferences 2024
8 Tufts** Loss 1-15 1755.7 Ignored May 4th New England D I College Womens Regionals 2024
68 Vermont-B** Loss 5-14 837.43 Ignored May 4th New England D I College Womens Regionals 2024
90 MIT** Loss 4-11 706.4 Ignored May 4th New England D I College Womens Regionals 2024
146 New Hampshire Loss 6-10 395.73 May 4th New England D I College Womens Regionals 2024
126 Massachusetts Loss 3-13 442.94 May 5th New England D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)