#190 Michigan-B (8-13)

avg: 553.14  •  sd: 78.16  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
38 American** Loss 0-13 1123.68 Ignored Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
188 Wake Forest Win 4-3 691.45 Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
204 Elon Loss 7-8 282.21 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
217 Georgetown-B Win 8-3 892.68 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
129 Illinois Loss 0-6 437.5 Mar 30th Illinois Invite 2024
182 Knox Loss 2-9 9.1 Mar 30th Illinois Invite 2024
237 Northwestern-B Win 9-0 621.81 Mar 30th Illinois Invite 2024
195 Washington University-B Win 5-3 929.94 Mar 30th Illinois Invite 2024
182 Knox Loss 8-9 484.1 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2024
237 Northwestern-B Win 15-2 621.81 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2024
195 Washington University-B Win 11-5 1111.38 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2024
140 Indiana Loss 2-4 432.65 Apr 13th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2024
174 Kentucky Loss 5-6 593.59 Apr 13th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2024
235 Purdue-B Win 5-2 651.23 Apr 13th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2024
23 Notre Dame** Loss 0-13 1331.53 Ignored Apr 13th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2024
141 Grand Valley Loss 3-10 322.69 Apr 14th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2024
222 Notre Dame-B Win 10-8 513.26 Apr 14th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2024
99 Chicago** Loss 2-15 619.77 Ignored Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
141 Grand Valley Loss 4-7 426.53 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
70 Northwestern** Loss 2-14 819.28 Ignored Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
23 Notre Dame** Loss 1-15 1331.53 Ignored Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)