#47 Southern California (14-17)

avg: 1636.66  •  sd: 50.31  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
30 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 8-12 1400.75 Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
97 Stanford-B Win 13-0 1835.17 Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
18 Colorado State Loss 9-12 1726.23 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
9 California-Santa Barbara** Loss 5-15 1726.41 Ignored Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
30 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 6-11 1295.21 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
85 California-San Diego-B Win 11-8 1704.88 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
29 UCLA Loss 8-11 1487.57 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
20 California-Davis Loss 8-11 1615.83 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
115 Denver Win 10-6 1615.77 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
85 California-San Diego-B Win 10-8 1601.93 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
25 Utah Loss 9-13 1467.46 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
42 Texas-Dallas Loss 10-12 1441.8 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
34 Washington University Loss 9-13 1365.59 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
24 Ohio State Loss 5-13 1293.87 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
115 Denver Win 14-4 1719.61 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
48 Colorado College Win 11-9 1862.57 Mar 17th Womens Centex 2024
32 Central Florida Loss 3-11 1217.19 Mar 17th Womens Centex 2024
14 California-San Diego Loss 5-14 1542.18 Apr 13th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2024
30 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 6-12 1262.6 Apr 13th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2024
165 Cal State-Long Beach** Win 13-1 1399.57 Ignored Apr 13th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2024
29 UCLA Loss 5-10 1279.28 Apr 13th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2024
88 California-Irvine Win 12-4 1909.28 Apr 14th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2024
30 Cal Poly-SLO Win 8-7 1966.91 Apr 14th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2024
29 UCLA Loss 1-12 1253.18 Apr 14th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2024
72 Santa Clara Win 11-3 1996.79 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
30 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 6-7 1716.91 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
137 California-B Win 7-3 1547.01 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
29 UCLA Win 11-8 2218.79 Apr 28th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
20 California-Davis Loss 7-15 1381.44 Apr 28th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
30 Cal Poly-SLO Win 10-7 2231.57 Apr 28th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
28 California Win 7-6 1981.51 Apr 28th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)