#226 American (6-17)

avg: 1033.12  •  sd: 57.91  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
65 Richmond Loss 5-11 1074.99 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
70 James Madison Loss 7-13 1075.66 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
141 Boston University Loss 8-11 976.7 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
102 Connecticut Loss 4-14 895.12 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
148 Johns Hopkins Loss 8-12 873.96 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
307 Mary Washington Win 11-6 1229.85 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
204 Virginia Commonwealth Loss 7-11 641.09 Feb 24th Monument Melee
147 Maryland-Baltimore County Loss 7-11 848.97 Feb 24th Monument Melee
289 Drexel Loss 8-9 644.67 Feb 24th Monument Melee
202 George Mason Win 11-7 1583.22 Feb 25th Monument Melee
204 Virginia Commonwealth Loss 11-14 794.64 Feb 25th Monument Melee
147 Maryland-Baltimore County Loss 8-10 1053.2 Feb 25th Monument Melee
244 Dickinson Loss 11-12 854.09 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
76 Massachusetts -B Loss 4-15 1010.5 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
217 George Washington Loss 11-13 829.66 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
209 Christopher Newport Win 15-7 1681.48 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
262 Virginia Tech-B Win 15-12 1199.77 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
307 Mary Washington Win 15-7 1283.16 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
148 Johns Hopkins Loss 8-14 779.08 Apr 20th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2024
64 Maryland Loss 8-11 1312.28 Apr 20th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2024
147 Maryland-Baltimore County Loss 7-10 926.2 Apr 20th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2024
175 Delaware Loss 8-15 657.07 Apr 21st Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2024
217 George Washington Win 15-12 1358.99 Apr 21st Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)