#204 Virginia Commonwealth (9-14)

avg: 1107.98  •  sd: 64.14  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
79 Case Western Reserve Loss 5-12 995.69 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
102 Connecticut Loss 7-10 1105.46 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
103 SUNY-Binghamton Loss 8-12 1050.49 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
102 Connecticut Loss 2-15 895.12 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
148 Johns Hopkins Win 11-10 1440.12 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
92 Pennsylvania Loss 0-15 939.36 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
226 American Win 11-7 1500.01 Feb 24th Monument Melee
289 Drexel Loss 6-8 469.17 Feb 24th Monument Melee
147 Maryland-Baltimore County Win 11-7 1782.76 Feb 24th Monument Melee
226 American Win 14-11 1346.46 Feb 25th Monument Melee
215 East Carolina Win 10-7 1455.25 Feb 25th Monument Melee
170 Villanova Loss 7-12 731.45 Feb 25th Monument Melee
148 Johns Hopkins Loss 7-9 1035.78 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
127 Pittsburgh-B Loss 10-15 935.12 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
307 Mary Washington Win 15-10 1136.76 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
262 Virginia Tech-B Win 11-10 1024.28 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
244 Dickinson Win 12-9 1324.46 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
217 George Washington Loss 8-14 522.47 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
202 George Mason Win 10-7 1505.99 Apr 20th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
57 Virginia Loss 7-15 1138.83 Apr 20th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
44 Virginia Tech** Loss 6-15 1214.41 Ignored Apr 20th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
59 William & Mary** Loss 6-15 1127.3 Ignored Apr 21st Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
104 Liberty Loss 5-10 916.83 Apr 21st Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)