#95 Williams (13-5)

avg: 1338.62  •  sd: 66.3  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
239 Columbia-B** Win 13-0 674.12 Ignored Mar 8th Strong Island Invitational
127 NYU Win 6-4 1478.52 Mar 8th Strong Island Invitational
139 Rutgers Win 8-5 1472.66 Mar 8th Strong Island Invitational
127 NYU Win 9-4 1712.91 Mar 9th Strong Island Invitational
216 SUNY-Stony Brook** Win 9-2 1040.77 Ignored Mar 9th Strong Island Invitational
145 Boston College Win 9-5 1516.01 Mar 22nd Jersey Devil 2025
58 Brown Loss 4-8 1102.68 Mar 22nd Jersey Devil 2025
144 RIT Win 8-6 1299.07 Mar 22nd Jersey Devil 2025
117 Swarthmore Loss 6-8 894.58 Mar 22nd Jersey Devil 2025
58 Brown Loss 6-15 1067.49 Mar 23rd Jersey Devil 2025
117 Swarthmore Win 12-10 1433.2 Mar 23rd Jersey Devil 2025
176 Charleston Win 13-2 1374.01 Mar 29th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
151 Davidson Win 10-6 1467 Mar 29th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
237 Elon** Win 13-2 803.3 Ignored Mar 29th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
141 Georgia College Win 8-5 1466.21 Mar 29th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
55 Appalachian State Loss 7-12 1178.87 Mar 30th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
79 Tennessee Loss 8-9 1353.92 Mar 30th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
107 Virginia Tech Win 11-10 1378.9 Mar 30th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)