#50 Middlebury (12-1)

avg: 1802.59  •  sd: 85.8  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
110 Amherst Win 9-3 1836.78 Mar 2nd Bam Bam Bonanza
188 Brandeis** Win 13-0 1264.16 Ignored Mar 2nd Bam Bam Bonanza
86 Vermont-B Win 8-3 2031.22 Mar 2nd Bam Bam Bonanza
71 Central Florida Loss 7-9 1277.98 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
163 Florida State** Win 14-4 1447.3 Ignored Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
138 Jacksonville State Win 7-5 1350.25 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
158 Massachusetts** Win 13-2 1482.78 Ignored Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
111 SUNY-Binghamton Win 10-4 1834.66 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
81 Wellesley Win 8-6 1766.75 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
69 Rochester Win 11-8 1952.18 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
110 Amherst Win 13-8 1732.94 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
86 Vermont-B Win 13-8 1927.38 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
69 Rochester Win 13-3 2186.57 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)