#123 Northwestern (5-13)

avg: 1142.51  •  sd: 92.93  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
28 Georgia** Loss 2-13 1461.57 Ignored Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
7 Michigan** Loss 0-13 1968.61 Ignored Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
62 North Carolina State Loss 4-13 1051.53 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
108 Alabama-Huntsville Loss 3-6 704.38 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
140 North Carolina-Wilmington Win 6-4 1378.83 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
45 Missouri** Loss 3-8 1227.88 Ignored Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
66 St Olaf Loss 3-7 1023.78 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
52 Washington University Loss 4-11 1138.3 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
94 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Win 11-6 1890.5 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
84 Macalester Loss 6-13 832.7 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
96 Michigan Tech Win 10-4 1936.29 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
97 Iowa State Loss 10-11 1204.44 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
87 Michigan State Loss 9-11 1158.97 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
202 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Win 13-3 1143.36 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
129 Winona State Win 8-7 1223.99 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
60 Purdue Loss 4-8 1092.71 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2025
94 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Loss 3-10 743.8 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2025
128 Saint Louis Loss 4-7 614.67 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)