#83 Illinois (13-6)

avg: 1439.05  •  sd: 57.36  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
96 Michigan Tech Loss 5-7 1008.15 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
190 Vanderbilt** Win 13-1 1255.18 Ignored Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
157 Knox Win 9-2 1535.2 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
84 Macalester Loss 6-8 1132.21 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
94 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Loss 9-10 1218.8 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
157 Knox Win 10-6 1431.36 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
181 Truman State Win 11-5 1339.96 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
11 Utah** Loss 5-13 1878.8 Ignored Mar 22nd Womens Centex 2025
89 San Diego State Win 13-6 1995.48 Mar 22nd Womens Centex 2025
136 Trinity Win 15-6 1635.87 Mar 22nd Womens Centex 2025
39 California Loss 3-15 1267.09 Mar 23rd Womens Centex 2025
25 UCLA** Loss 6-15 1533.45 Ignored Mar 23rd Womens Centex 2025
93 Rice Win 13-10 1673.77 Mar 23rd Womens Centex 2025
196 Dayton** Win 12-2 1193.78 Ignored Mar 29th Corny Classic College 2025
132 Grand Valley Win 12-7 1585.39 Mar 29th Corny Classic College 2025
174 Michigan-B** Win 7-2 1391.57 Ignored Mar 29th Corny Classic College 2025
116 Cincinnati Win 7-5 1523.38 Mar 30th Corny Classic College 2025
132 Grand Valley Win 7-6 1189.88 Mar 30th Corny Classic College 2025
181 Truman State Win 8-4 1304.77 Mar 30th Corny Classic College 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)