#18 Colorado State (16-7)

avg: 2071.59  •  sd: 64.59  •  top 16/20: 90.7%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
47 Southern California Win 12-9 1982.03 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
30 Cal Poly-SLO Win 14-5 2441.91 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
9 California-Santa Barbara Loss 5-15 1726.41 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
7 Colorado Loss 9-15 1910.76 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
4 Oregon Loss 9-11 2319.84 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
25 Utah Loss 7-11 1419.13 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
7 Colorado Loss 7-14 1843.36 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
25 Utah Win 15-2 2486.02 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
27 Brown Win 13-9 2287.71 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
99 Chicago** Win 13-3 1819.77 Ignored Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
53 Texas Win 13-9 1979.86 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
27 Brown Win 15-10 2322.75 Mar 17th Womens Centex 2024
92 Middlebury** Win 13-5 1904.95 Ignored Mar 17th Womens Centex 2024
25 Utah Win 14-12 2106.98 Mar 17th Womens Centex 2024
53 Texas Win 15-11 1942.46 Mar 17th Womens Centex 2024
7 Colorado Loss 6-15 1826.24 Apr 13th Rocky Mountain D I Womens Conferences 2024
115 Denver** Win 15-5 1719.61 Ignored Apr 13th Rocky Mountain D I Womens Conferences 2024
115 Denver** Win 15-1 1719.61 Ignored Apr 13th Rocky Mountain D I Womens Conferences 2024
113 Saint Louis** Win 15-4 1731.28 Ignored Apr 27th South Central D I College Womens Regionals 2024
149 Texas A&M** Win 15-4 1477.51 Ignored Apr 27th South Central D I College Womens Regionals 2024
42 Texas-Dallas Win 11-4 2279.92 Apr 27th South Central D I College Womens Regionals 2024
7 Colorado Loss 7-15 1826.24 Apr 28th South Central D I College Womens Regionals 2024
34 Washington University Win 15-6 2384.16 Apr 28th South Central D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)