#77 Penn State (8-10)

avg: 1497.26  •  sd: 78.82  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
57 James Madison Loss 3-10 1081.44 Jan 25th Winta Binta Vinta 2025
21 Ohio State** Loss 1-12 1666.62 Ignored Jan 25th Winta Binta Vinta 2025
245 Virginia-B** Win 10-0 600 Ignored Jan 25th Winta Binta Vinta 2025
32 Georgetown Loss 4-8 1442.2 Jan 26th Winta Binta Vinta 2025
48 Liberty Win 7-6 1944.58 Jan 26th Winta Binta Vinta 2025
140 North Carolina-Wilmington Win 9-5 1542.28 Jan 26th Winta Binta Vinta 2025
134 Catholic Win 6-2 1658.71 Mar 1st Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
210 Johns Hopkins** Win 9-0 1098.81 Ignored Mar 1st Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
204 William & Mary-B** Win 9-0 1130.76 Ignored Mar 1st Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
113 George Washington Win 8-3 1811.98 Mar 2nd Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
40 Haverford/Bryn Mawr Loss 1-9 1243.37 Mar 2nd Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
56 Maryland Loss 6-9 1280.1 Mar 2nd Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
80 Carnegie Mellon Loss 5-7 1147.41 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
56 Maryland Loss 4-6 1333.06 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
36 MIT Loss 6-10 1403.06 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
49 William & Mary Loss 7-8 1688.92 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
27 Northeastern Loss 6-9 1674.04 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
112 West Chester Win 10-6 1709.83 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)