#115 Denver (12-20)

avg: 1119.61  •  sd: 57.06  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
76 Arizona Loss 8-9 1244.93 Jan 27th New Year Fest 40
198 Arizona-B Win 11-6 1012.31 Jan 27th New Year Fest 40
69 Grand Canyon Loss 5-9 907.31 Jan 27th New Year Fest 40
119 Northern Arizona Loss 7-10 697.64 Jan 27th New Year Fest 40
79 San Diego State Loss 6-7 1235.25 Jan 28th New Year Fest 40
136 Arizona State Win 7-3 1555.01 Jan 28th New Year Fest 40
20 California-Davis** Loss 2-14 1381.44 Ignored Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
14 California-San Diego** Loss 2-15 1542.18 Ignored Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
4 Oregon** Loss 0-15 1969.05 Ignored Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
30 Cal Poly-SLO** Loss 4-15 1241.91 Ignored Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
28 California** Loss 2-12 1256.51 Ignored Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
135 Claremont Loss 6-9 560.25 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
47 Southern California Loss 6-10 1140.5 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
85 California-San Diego-B Loss 6-9 920.7 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
223 Colorado College-B** Win 11-2 826.21 Ignored Mar 2nd Snow Melt 2024
187 Colorado Mines Win 12-0 1178.65 Mar 2nd Snow Melt 2024
48 Colorado College Loss 5-15 1013.36 Mar 3rd Snow Melt 2024
143 John Brown Win 10-5 1493.36 Mar 3rd Snow Melt 2024
47 Southern California Loss 4-14 1036.66 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
48 Colorado College Loss 6-13 1013.36 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
232 North Texas** Win 13-2 699.18 Ignored Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
196 Texas-San Antonio Win 13-7 1043.8 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
149 Texas A&M Win 11-5 1477.51 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
32 Central Florida** Loss 1-13 1217.19 Ignored Mar 17th Womens Centex 2024
153 Texas State Win 10-9 986.23 Mar 17th Womens Centex 2024
18 Colorado State** Loss 5-15 1471.59 Ignored Apr 13th Rocky Mountain D I Womens Conferences 2024
18 Colorado State** Loss 1-15 1471.59 Ignored Apr 13th Rocky Mountain D I Womens Conferences 2024
169 Colorado-B Win 12-5 1372.75 Apr 13th Rocky Mountain D I Womens Conferences 2024
7 Colorado** Loss 0-15 1826.24 Ignored Apr 27th South Central D I College Womens Regionals 2024
153 Texas State Win 8-7 986.23 Apr 27th South Central D I College Womens Regionals 2024
149 Texas A&M Win 11-6 1424.21 Apr 27th South Central D I College Womens Regionals 2024
53 Texas Loss 5-9 1032.23 Apr 27th South Central D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)