#25 Utah (15-16)

avg: 1886.02  •  sd: 59.41  •  top 16/20: 4.5%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
1 British Columbia** Loss 4-15 2170.47 Ignored Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
28 California Win 14-9 2330.38 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
20 California-Davis Loss 6-12 1402.13 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
14 California-San Diego Win 12-9 2487.55 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
28 California Win 13-10 2184.66 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
29 UCLA Loss 5-10 1279.28 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
5 Stanford Loss 8-12 2078.73 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
135 Claremont** Win 15-4 1578.82 Ignored Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
29 UCLA Win 9-8 1978.18 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
14 California-San Diego Loss 4-12 1542.18 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
7 Colorado Loss 8-15 1861.43 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
18 Colorado State Win 11-7 2538.49 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
4 Oregon Loss 7-13 2011.52 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
18 Colorado State Loss 2-15 1471.59 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
15 Western Washington Loss 4-15 1532.74 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
47 Southern California Win 13-9 2055.23 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
24 Ohio State Loss 9-10 1768.87 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
42 Texas-Dallas Loss 10-12 1441.8 Mar 16th Womens Centex 2024
99 Chicago** Win 13-5 1819.77 Ignored Mar 17th Womens Centex 2024
18 Colorado State Loss 12-14 1850.64 Mar 17th Womens Centex 2024
34 Washington University Win 8-5 2237.76 Mar 17th Womens Centex 2024
34 Washington University Win 11-10 1909.16 Mar 17th Womens Centex 2024
11 Brigham Young Loss 7-13 1698.51 Apr 13th Big Sky D I Womens Conferences 2024
60 Utah State Win 12-2 2109.14 Apr 13th Big Sky D I Womens Conferences 2024
116 Montana** Win 13-3 1712.89 Ignored Apr 13th Big Sky D I Womens Conferences 2024
171 Montana State** Win 13-0 1354.59 Ignored Apr 13th Big Sky D I Womens Conferences 2024
1 British Columbia** Loss 0-13 2170.47 Ignored May 4th Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
13 Victoria Loss 10-13 1825.22 May 4th Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
15 Western Washington Loss 10-12 1894.62 May 4th Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
154 Oregon State** Win 13-1 1459.31 Ignored May 5th Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
116 Montana** Win 13-5 1712.89 Ignored May 5th Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)