#143 John Brown (5-10)

avg: 919.46  •  sd: 81.36  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
124 Arkansas Loss 6-10 575.61 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
96 Iowa State Win 6-4 1619.12 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
53 Texas Loss 6-7 1436.29 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
77 Missouri Loss 3-8 768.96 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
177 Missouri State Win 8-7 807.97 Feb 18th Dust Bowl 2024
210 Air Force Win 13-3 932.42 Mar 2nd Snow Melt 2024
48 Colorado College** Loss 1-10 1013.36 Ignored Mar 2nd Snow Melt 2024
169 Colorado-B Win 7-5 1100.89 Mar 2nd Snow Melt 2024
169 Colorado-B Loss 3-5 354.18 Mar 3rd Snow Melt 2024
115 Denver Loss 5-10 545.71 Mar 3rd Snow Melt 2024
223 Colorado College-B** Win 9-3 826.21 Ignored Apr 13th South Central D III Womens Conferences 2024
66 Trinity Loss 3-13 856.11 Apr 13th South Central D III Womens Conferences 2024
93 Rice Loss 6-8 980.78 Apr 13th South Central D III Womens Conferences 2024
133 Truman State Loss 8-9 856.98 Apr 13th South Central D III Womens Conferences 2024
48 Colorado College Loss 5-8 1159.76 Apr 14th South Central D III Womens Conferences 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)