#143 SUNY-Geneseo (6-9)

avg: 1000.08  •  sd: 65.55  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
40 Haverford/Bryn Mawr** Loss 1-9 1243.37 Ignored Feb 22nd Bring The Huckus 2025
90 Ithaca Loss 1-8 776.07 Feb 22nd Bring The Huckus 2025
102 Lehigh Loss 3-9 676.26 Feb 22nd Bring The Huckus 2025
47 Wesleyan** Loss 1-9 1220.96 Ignored Feb 22nd Bring The Huckus 2025
90 Ithaca Win 7-6 1501.07 Feb 23rd Bring The Huckus 2025
102 Lehigh Loss 7-10 886.6 Feb 23rd Bring The Huckus 2025
47 Wesleyan** Loss 1-15 1220.96 Ignored Feb 23rd Bring The Huckus 2025
218 SUNY-Cortland Win 10-4 1032.79 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
198 Vassar Win 12-2 1184.37 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
160 Syracuse Win 7-4 1369.67 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
185 Skidmore Win 6-5 814.71 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
158 Massachusetts Win 8-6 1183.27 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
69 Rochester Loss 2-13 986.57 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
111 SUNY-Binghamton Loss 3-7 634.66 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
81 Wellesley Loss 5-11 866.26 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)