#47 Wesleyan (11-3)

avg: 1820.96  •  sd: 81.06  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
40 Haverford/Bryn Mawr Win 8-6 2143.87 Feb 22nd Bring The Huckus 2025
90 Ithaca Win 13-3 1976.07 Feb 22nd Bring The Huckus 2025
102 Lehigh Win 12-2 1876.26 Feb 22nd Bring The Huckus 2025
143 SUNY-Geneseo** Win 9-1 1600.08 Ignored Feb 22nd Bring The Huckus 2025
40 Haverford/Bryn Mawr Win 11-9 2092.58 Feb 23rd Bring The Huckus 2025
143 SUNY-Geneseo** Win 15-1 1600.08 Ignored Feb 23rd Bring The Huckus 2025
160 Syracuse** Win 13-1 1473.51 Ignored Feb 23rd Bring The Huckus 2025
28 Georgia Loss 8-10 1798.91 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
102 Lehigh Win 9-6 1694.83 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
66 St Olaf Win 14-11 1937.12 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
49 William & Mary Win 11-10 1938.92 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
80 Carnegie Mellon Loss 6-9 1056.98 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
28 Georgia Loss 6-11 1514.88 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
64 South Carolina Win 8-4 2199.47 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)