#166 UCLA-B (7-10)

avg: 837.04  •  sd: 78.05  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
162 Arizona Loss 4-7 358.43 Feb 1st Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
194 Cal State-Long Beach Win 7-5 923.75 Feb 1st Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
104 California-San Diego-B Loss 3-8 666.85 Feb 1st Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
25 UCLA** Loss 2-13 1533.45 Ignored Feb 1st Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
115 Arizona State Loss 5-12 596.04 Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
194 Cal State-Long Beach Win 7-3 1195.6 Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
220 California-San Diego-C Win 10-2 984.47 Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
194 Cal State-Long Beach Loss 2-3 470.6 Mar 2nd Claremont Classic 2025
104 California-San Diego-B Loss 4-13 666.85 Mar 2nd Claremont Classic 2025
220 California-San Diego-C Win 5-2 984.47 Mar 2nd Claremont Classic 2025
126 Claremont-B Loss 3-8 514.02 Mar 2nd Claremont Classic 2025
194 Cal State-Long Beach Win 5-4 720.6 Mar 8th Gnomageddon
104 California-San Diego-B Win 3-2 1391.85 Mar 8th Gnomageddon
199 California-Santa Barbara-B Win 9-4 1172.3 Mar 8th Gnomageddon
89 San Diego State Loss 4-9 795.48 Mar 8th Gnomageddon
63 California-Irvine Loss 5-9 1113.69 Mar 9th Gnomageddon
104 California-San Diego-B Loss 3-5 848.29 Mar 9th Gnomageddon
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)